News backdrop continues deteriorating: reports on August 14 about further slowdown of traffic through Hormuz after US threats of economic pressure on Iran; August 12 CNBC — Houthi attack with 6 killed, Trump criticizes Iran, hopes for Hormuz deal 'dimming'; Saudi exports through Red Sea 'go dark' per data. Prediction markets showed sharp pessimism: probability of Hormuz normalization by August 31 fell 96.6% in 24h to 1.55%, by September 30 — down 70.3% to 13.5% (both contracts with anomalous_move_24h=true). This is a strong leading signal that traders don't believe in quick stabilization. Contradiction: AIS traffic relatively stable — 30 suspicious vessels in current window vs 30 in previous, Iranian vessels +17 (no collapse), total volume in 24h 7068 vessels without drop. Brent price rose moderately (+1.76% in 24h, +5.03% in 7d), not spiked — market already partially priced risk but not panicking. Gold +9.77% in 30 days — classic flight to safe haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty. Both markets (Brent, Gold) closed for weekend, last price ~11 hours ago before Friday close — current sentiment difficult to assess, awaiting Monday open